Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc.


Retainer Services



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    Natural Gas Services
    Fact Sheet

    Natural Gas SEER's
    Recent Track Record
    for Accuracy

    Retainer Services

    Natural Gas SEER: This service provides a five-year projection of natural gas prices at fifteen major pricing points. The first three years are at monthly frequency and the last two years, at an annual frequency. Risks are assessed and three price scenarios are provided for Henry Hub. Reference case prices are forecast at 15 major hubs. The market analysis includes a full supply/demand balance, and projections of electricity consumption and generation by source. Storage forecasts are issued weekly for the current and following week. Henry Hub price forecasts are updated weekly. Telephone access to SEER's staff is provided to assist clients in assessing market risk and market outlook.

    For sample copies of Natural Gas SEER,

    Natural Gas Scenarios : Natural Gas Scenarios provides a long-term assessment of market fundamentals under alternative assumptions. Coverage includes demands by sector and region, regional wellhead, city-gate prices, prices at major trading points and production by basin.

    Global Petroleum SEER: The Global Petroleum SEER provides monthly analysis of fundamental factors that influence oil prices and forecasts of the following: the refiner cost of crude oil, WTI, and spot prices of six grades of oil at New York Harbor. The global market balance is forecast for six quarters into the future, including the call on stocks and OPEC. Assessments of OPEC strategy and the perceptions of traders are included.

    For sample copies of Global Petroleum SEER,

    Strategic Petroleum Outlook: The strategic petroleum outlook provides a long-term assessment of oil market fundamentals discussed in light of the evolution of demand, non-OPEC supply, and OPEC policy and capabilities. Placed in the context of the changing regulatory and technological environment, this report provides both forecast data and analysis of key market uncertainties, including probability assessments and likely scenarios.

    Coal Monthly: Monthly forecasts for 24 months). A forecast of ten key spot coal prices coupled with an analysis of major market drivers including production, stocks, and exports/imports.

    Quarterly Coal Forecast: This 10-15 page forecast is issued quarterly and emphasizes the spot market price outlook for 7 major coal producing regions for the upcoming 8-12 quarters, supplemented by a 24-year annual forecast for each coal.

    Coal Price Analysis Reports: Coal Price Analysis reports are more detailed, individual coal region-specific reports issued 1-2 times annually on each of the coal producing regions listed below. The reports cover Demand for the region's coal (with production forecasts), Mining Conditions (a section prepared by SEER's mining engineers), and a Price Forecast for individual coals produced within the region. The price forecast includes a Base, High, and Low Price Case for each coal, as well as covering several market prices for each coal (including Spot, Annual Contract, 3-year Contract, and 5-Year Contract prices).

    Transportation Rate Forecasts: Transportation Rate Forecasts (TRFs) provide a detailed assessment a variety of transportation modes and carriers. Individual assessments are made of each Class I Railroad (including Canadian lines) covering such areas as market strategy, investment practices, costs of operation, productivity, as well as annual rate forecasts. The TRF document includes rate forecasts rail, barge and truck.

    Coal and Rail Contract Escalators: This annual publication provides both insights into current contracting trends and forecasts of the most commonly-used escalators (e.g.,Implicit Price Deflator, Consumer Price Index, various PPI indices, RCAF series).

    Emission Allowance Price Forecasts: SO2 And NOx Emission Allowance Price Forecasts (EAPFs) covering both SO2 and NOx are provided quarterly in a 10-15 page document covering 25 years, and monthly in a 5-page report forecasting on a month-by-month basis for 24 months. In addition, a series of 8 Background Papers are furnished the client annually covering such topics as Mercury, Global Warming, PM2.5, the relationship between emission allowance prices and coal prices, SO2/NOx equipment cost assumptions, etc.

    Nuclear Power Outlook: This publication is produced annually, providing both an assessment of key issues affecting nuclear power as well as a unit-by-unit forecast of generation to the year 2020. Uranium price forecasts are also included.

    Coal in The Electric Power Industry: Compliance Strategies and Competitive Power Generation Position 2000-2025 This is a series of plant-by-plant (and unit-by-unit) reports covering coal-fired power generation in all electricity regions. The following is included: A discussion of plant ownership, location, generation and pollution control equipment, capacity factor, coal tonnage and specifications, contract and procurement strategy, transportation modes and alternatives, maps depicting coal plant locations and transportation routings ,and clean air compliance strategy (SO2 and NOx). For individual plants (and boilers) for 2000-2025, a forecast of the delivered cost of coal is provided in Excel (separated between mine-mouth and transportation costs, including separate identification of truck, rail, barge, and transshipment rates), by coal region and type of coal. For each coal unit, a forecast is provided of the annual capacity factor and generation, fuel and O&M costs, pollution control equipment and/or allowance price costs for SO2/NOx/CO2 reduction, and emission levels. Tables are shown depicting transportation routings and distances, by mode and specific rail carrier, for existing and potential routings.

    "Our Perspective On..." This quarterly publication informally and qualitatively explores major energy issues of the day. Generally only 3-5 pages in length (although at times they have exceeded 20 pages), it is an opportunity to address underlying energy concerns not always immediately discernible in data or forecasts. Past topics range from an examination of the revived interests in constructing new coal plants, to the impact of electricity deregulation on emission allowance prices, to the newfound volatility in coal markets.

    2008 SEER